What is next for Blackberry?

What is next for Blackberry?

On paper the offer to buy Blackberry for $4.7 billion looks like a steal for a company with over $13 billion of assets on the books. However, losses have mounted for almost $1 billion per quarter, phone sales declined 25%, revenues fell by over 50%, market share declined to 3%. The deal looks good but buyer has to act quickly to turn business around or sell parts.

 
Blackberry phone business cannot be turned around. As I predicted before Windows Phone solidified its position as global #3 mobile OS, moving to #2 in number of key global markets, displacing iOS countries like India and Italy. Now with Blackberry manufacturing partner is leaving it may have no choice. The mobile market cannot sustain 4 mobile operating systems.

Blackberry has three attractive pieces left:

·         Patent portfolio

·         Messenger with its network

·         Secure global wireless network

Patents alone analysts think worth $5-$8 billion. Messenger is new hot trend with WhatsApp, Viber, Line, Skype and WeChat accumulating huge user bases and turning into billion dollar businesses. Secure global network can be the key differentiator for a device like Kindle or any other iPad challenger. Each piece does not have to be sold to the same buyer. Pieces together can worth between $10 and $15 billion.

Before the end of this year we are going to be talking about each piece sold to a leader or contender in the mobile.