Who would buy Nokia?

That is crazy to think anybody would be looking to buy Nokia out. But stranger things have happened. Roadkill Palm was bought by HP and continues to be on the curb of the mobile highway, left in the dust. Who needs Nokia’s “burning platform”? Who needs Nokia brand? And if such a fool is out there, how much money do they need to put up? NOK market cap is at 23 billion. That means somebody will need to have about $30B of cash or stock for takeover.

The most valuable in Nokia’s business today is their ability to distribute and sell phones in huge volumes (1m phone sold per day) worldwide (maybe not in the USA). That is exactly why Microsoft and Google were fighting to strike the partnership with the handset manufacturer. Also, a PC or chip company would be looking to differentiate itself from competition and establish footprint in the mobile market.

Elop, Nokia CEO denies the takeover rumors but how much power does he really have? He was elected to the board a month ago, May 3^rd and he is not chairman of the board. If there will be offer on the table more favorable than deal with Microsoft shareholders will demand to agree to the takeover. Corporate governance laws in Europe favors shareholders and Cadbury acquisition was the best recent example. The following candidates are the potential buyers in my point of view:

Intel – desperately want to get into emerging mobile chip space. Meego platform was their gateway there, which is now closing. In May in San Francisco of all places Nokia and Intel jointly held MEEGO conference. I see Intel desperate desire to hold on to Meego.

Google – company made head scratching decisions before. They lost out to Microsoft in the attempt to strike partnership deal with Nokia. They can try now to buy Nokia out?

Microsoft – you’d think the company learnt from Danger disaster not to buy Nokia, but again, stranger things have happened. The only thing Microsoft needed from Nokia was they distribution and they got it with the partnership agreement.

Chinese – these guys are hungry for western brands and IP, distribution. In addition, Nokia core competency of cheap feature phones based on S40 platform has large share in China and Africa (also Chinese domain).

Dell – HP bought dead Palm. Dell may buy dead Nokia. Necromaniac drive of those computer manufacturers is inexplicable but undeniable

Can direct competitor takeover likely? Not really. Ericsson and Motorola are not in the position to gobble up Nokia