BlackBerry is being sold

As I mentioned several times last year the only remaining option for BlackBerry to return to shareholders at least something is to find a buyer. BlackBerry did not needed to wait for release of BlackBerry 10 as the only items that have remaining value to a buyer are global messaging network and patent portfolio (rated as #5).
However we are still in BlackBerry 10 honeymoon, which will soon meet rough reality: mobile landscape cannot sustain 4th ecosystem. Palm and Symbian went through that stage already.

There is a buyer: Lenovo. PC manufactures wants to move from declining desktop and laptop market to growing tablet and phone. HP tried same move by acquiring Palm. It had disastrous ending. Product was pulled off the market just few days after launch.
If Lenovo is looking to buy BlackBerry for its operating system the ending will be the same. Android and iOS are well entrenched and Microsoft is moving forward as solid 3rd ecosystem. I am not sure what Lenovo can achieve with BlackBerry patent portfolio and global messaging network.
Patent portfolio and global messaging network would be the most valuable to a phone maker looking to differentiate itself.

Perhaps HTC?

Google Maps comes back triumphant to iPhone. Bing Maps has lost the golden opportunity.

Back in 2007 with introduction of iPhone Apple decided that Google Maps would provide integrated mapping experience on iOS. Since then relationship between two companies has soured and Apple also realized the importance of controlling value proposition related to mapping and location.

Apple fumbled introduction of their own integrated mapping software by providing poor quality images in some areas of the maps when iPhone 5 was introduced in September 2012. The extent of the problem was probably overblown in media and Apple image has suffered.

It was only a matter of time when Google Maps would come back to iOS as a downloadable app and that moment was 12/12/12. The same date Microsoft Bing Maps uphill climb became steeper. Bing has lost golden opportunity to quickly become main alternative to maps from Apple while Google Maps were in non-existence for two+ months on iOS6. During that period iOS users would be more inclined to try Bing Maps and the product would draw more attention from the media provided Bing’s appropriate marketing/PR campaign. Alas, instead of discussion in media and blogs about Bing everyone was waiting for Google Maps to come back. Tim Cook helped Microsoft when suggested users ‘download Bing’ app. However Bing app has maps as one of the features and not focused specifically at map user experience. Bing also has Bing Get Methere app which has horrible rating and only a few downloads.

The golden opportunity for ugly duckling to become a swan much quicker is lost, when prima ballerina could not be on stage, her backup remained behind the curtain.

iPhone 5 disappoints

Today Apple has announced update to the iPhone, device that has changed the mobile world. Updates to the device, as I predicted, are disappointing. The phone is lighter and thinner, has faster chip– not that previous devices were too heavy, slow or thick. New iPhone 5 has 4G LTE, long overdue catch up to the competition. There are few other updates that I consider minor: 3 mics instead of 2, HD front facing camera, +1 hour of wi-fi browsing. The iOS also gets an update: Facebook integration (catch-up to Windows Phone), Siri updates (more languages, launches and integrates with apps). There is no NFC chip, which is probably due to lack of demand.

 

The main drawback of the iPhone has been its screen size, which I do not think Apple has fully addressed with the new device. Previous versions of iPhones had 3.5 inch screen; iPhone 5 extends to 4 inch. However, screen resolution of 1135 X 640 does not make the display feel bigger but rather disproportionately long. In other sense, it is same old phone, just taller. Users interact with phones mostly via screens (sorry Siri) and they want bigger screens. iPod Nano gets bigger display, iPhone 5 gets taller display.

This is what users say on the web:

I'm a little underwhelmed. This is the first Apple press event where I haven't thought, "Wow, all the other companies will be scrambling to catch up"

95% of same old crap, UI change in calendar and contact apps, and RAM upgrade...

I'm surprised by the lack of change with this new model. It's underwhelming when you consider the screen is still smaller than most smartphones by large margins, the display resolution is smaller than the 16:9 Lumia 920 screen. What happened to the innovation

I'll keep my S3. Thank you. Not surprised though. I mean, it's Apple we're talking about. Moving on

Nothing to be impressed with, even with the A6 Quad core and LTE support.

Not a break away from the crowding smart phone market, no trend setting design changes,no must have this phone kind of features..its more of an update to 4S then a new generation iphone

Not long time ago BlackBerry was the invincible and arogant mobile king with dedicated users world-wide. Sounds familiar?

Making money by building apps is becoming difficult

Apps ecosystem health is arguably the most essential piece for mobile platform to be successful and grow. Without installable apps that add value, mobile operating system is just an isolated island from the rest of the information world.

Developers are the key contributors to the ecosystems, many are true enthusiastic altruists, but most aspire to make profit and run a business. If such aspirations are difficult to attain, naturally I would expect number of developers writing apps for the platform to decrease.

I have written before about lack of developers financial successon Android platform and slightly higher earners from Amazon app store. iOS developers comparably make more money from selling their apps as iOS customer is more affluent and more likely to spend money on an app purchase. Naturally this draws developers to develop on the iOS which has led to more that 600k apps but Google Play (formerly Android Market) has almost as many apps.

App developers expectations are high, however, many are disappointed according to a recent apppromo survey: 

·         59% of apps do not generate enough revenue to break even on dev costs

·         80% don’t make enough revenue to sustain a business <<NetNewsWire dev Brent Simmons suspects the figure is "more like 85 percent," while Lucius Kwok believes it may "fall in the range of 90 percent or higher.">>

·         12% earn $50k or more

I interpret those numbers as there are too many apps for new entrants to have success and standout from the incumbent, discoverability continues to be a problem. Revenue distribution among the developers is uneven. Marketing budget for new entrants are small. Several are making astronomical proceeds from the app sales, but 4/5 cannot sustain a business.

Android market share declines by 5%

It did not take more than a month before my prediction of Android demise came true. ABIresearch reported that global share of Android devices shipped has declined "from its 3Q high of 52.5% to 47.0% in Q4".
Apple for the first time sold more iPhones (37 million) than any other Android OEM.

Is this the beginning of Android decline. Not yet, in my opinion. Not until Windows Phone and Nokia partnership start seeing bigger market share gains.

While Android phones dominate market web browsing happens on iOS

NetMarketshare published report showing consistently around 50% of mobile web traffic coming from iOS (iPhone and iPad), while Android is in high teens.

Apple. Numbers. June 2011

Very impressive.

• 200 million iOS devices sold
• of which 25 million iPads
• The App Store has hit 425,000 apps with 90,000native iPad apps
• 14 billion downloads from the App Store
• $2.5 billion paid out in revenue to app developers
• iTunes hits 15 billion downloads, top retailer for music in the world
• iBookstore has 6 major publishers now, with 130 million books200 million iOS devices sold
• 25 million iPads sold since launch in 2010

Report from WWDC - gimme Five this fall!

His Jobness address to masses revealed long awaited iOS 5 release this fall, which will be compatible with iPhone 4 and 3GS, iPad 1 and 2, and iPod touch 3rd and 4th generation. Some features I feel worthy of mentioning are:

• Notification Center aggregates notifications
• Camera button will be on lockscreen to take pictures faster without unlocking the phone
• Wireless sync - no need to connect to PC for updates
• Not that RIM needed any more daggers to its weak heart, Apple revealed data-based push messaging service iMessage
• His Jobness anounced iCloud, quote: "iCloud stores your content in the cloud and wirelessly pushes it to all your device. It automatically uploads it, stores it, and pushes it to all your devices."