Is Windows Phone really going to outsell iPhone in China?

With huge fanfare, coverage in media and blogs Microsoft has officially launched Windows Phone in People’s Republic of China market. Windows Phone ‘Mango’ update was localized in Chinese language and earlier in 2012 Microsoft has launched Windows Phone Marketplace in Chinese. Windows Phone even comes with localized features. Windows Phone People hub instead of Facebook and Twitter integration (blocked in China social networks) connects users to Sina Weibo (Twitter knockoff) and Renren (Facebook adaptation). But it was moot point having no Windows Phone devices on the Chinese market until this week. Today list of OEMs is impressive: HTC, ZTE and Samsung. Arguable the most important of all, Nokia also will be selling Lumia end of March.

Windows Phones are priced rather aggressively around 1000 yuan, which about $150. iPhones are sold at prices at least 5 times higher. Price should definitely help gaining market share. In fact, Bloomberg article reports that Simon Leung, Microsoft China boss, expects Windows Phone to eclipse iPhone and Android in market share, but did not give specific timeline.

Is it reasonable to expect Windows Phone sales to be higher than iPhone after all you read is how people mug each other in front of Apple stores to buy an iPhone in China and how scalpers are making quick bucks brining devices from other countries?

Nicole Peng from Canalys expects Windows Phone to have 6% market share year 2012, and about 12% in 2013. According to Strategy Analytics today Android enjoys 65% market share in China and iPhone is at 13%. Symbian market share was around 18% in 2011 expected to shrink to 12% in 2012. In China today Apple is third in market share behind Symbian. Windows Phone should be taking share from Symbian, considering Nokia is sunsetting Symbian and investing heavily in Windows Phone. Also, I expect Windows Phone to start taking share from Android. Strategy Analytics expects Android to lose 2% share and iPhone to gain 1% each of the next 5 years. However next 5 years Strategy Analytics does not expect Windows Phone to catch iPhone’s market share.

I think it is reasonable to expect Windows Phone to retake most of today’s 18% Symbian market share next two years and take 2% from Android each year as well. In such case Windows Phone market share can be between 14%-18%, which is well in the striking distance of eclipsing iPhone.

25% developers do not make money on Android

Reading Strategy Analytics report on App Ecosystem by Josh Martin published January 2012 I found on the Exhibit 7 about quarter of developers with apps on Android do not generate any revenue, more than on any other platform. Nokia Ovi is next with 15%. On the other hand, Windows Phone and Blackberry apps developers all reported making money.
My conclusion, if you are developer and want to make money on apps - avoid Android.

Nokia Lumia phones off to a good start

This is one of the very few reports available on how Nokia Lumia phone sales are performing since after the launch in November 2011. Reports vary from 800,000 to 2 million phones sold from November to the New Year show strong demand.

What Mobile Phone People Want for Chrismass?

Apple and Google dominate the smartphone sales while Blackberry slowly fading into irrelevancy. What people what for Christmas? Mobile phones are high on the list. Amazon's 5 of 10 top rated phones are Windows Phones, including first Top 3. Not Android.

 

New Entrants into Mobile Operating Systems Space

This is interesting time in dynamic mobile space. Old incumbent platforms are dying (Blackberry, Symbian, webOS) because the market cannot sustain the fragmentation and but new platforms are emerging.

• August 1, I wrote blog article that Alibaba is releasing own mobile operating system. September 10 the company announced localization in Traditional Chinese and English
• End of August I wrote another article that Korean government endorsed its OEMs to create own mobile operating system, considering Samsung already had own semi-successful OS named BADA
• In a recent interview with The Economic Observer, HTC co-founder and chairwoman Cher Wang said that it is considering purchase of own operating system.

Why all major phone makers suddenly considering building or buying own operating system? Perhaps because free Android is no longer free. Microsoft is charging between $5 and $15 per phone patent royalties, some of which exceed licence fees for Windows Phone 7.

New mobile platform entrant should be aware about the three major problems:

• Gaining market share. Ask yourself, why would you buy something other than iPhone or Android phone? I cannot come up with one reason.
• Developers interest. There are not enough developers to cover half a dozen mobile operating systems and make money the same time. Developers make money on the scale of downloads and the scale decreases with the increase of the platforms. Number and quality of apps are the key to growing market share.
• Monetization. will the platform make money? If not, I am not sure incremental cost of building and supporting own operating system is lower than licensing Windows Phone or paying royalties for Android.

Korean gov't to ask Samsung and LG to develop mobile OS

Google acquiring Motorola sends shiver to Android OEMs. Even before the acquisition when Google making own phone (Nexus One) had Android OEMs concerned that Google would be directly competing with them. Now that threat is even bigger. FT.com reports that Korean government is asking Samsung and LG to develop own operating system to reduce dependency one Android. That would be difficult because of Android attractiveness (50% global market share + free license). Building own Mobile OS when others are dying (Palm webOS, BlackBerry, Symbian) and Chinese Alibaba also in process developing own mobile OS, as I reported earlier.
My recommendation for Samsung and LG to reduce dependency on Android is be to diversify with Windows Phone.

Android has 50% globl market share, Windows Phone revenue $600m

Google is gobbling up market share globally. Half of all smart phones in the world are running Android. This is astounding impressive considering the operating system is just 3 years old. Revenue from mobile search for Google is not reported but analysts say it is reaching 2 billion.
Meanwhile, Windows Phone is getting traction. It is not an instant billion dollar business like Kinect, but $600m in 9 months live is also good.

Windows Phone Marketpalce is the fastest to 25k apps

I am impressed that Windows Phone has built such relationship with developers so quickly. Now over 40,000 developers registered submitting about 1000 applications per week. Blackberry does not even have that many apps many years in existence.

Of course iPad now, a year later has over apps 100,000 apps.

Android continues gaining market share

comScore recently reports that since January to April 2011 Android has picked up in the USA 5.2% market share and Apple 1.3. Android continues to gobble up the market and RIM continues to lose market share (minus 4.7). I expect that trend to continue with Android reaching 40% and growth decelerating. RIM loss of market share will continue and Microsoft platform will start taking the share from RIM in the year 2012. Expectations for Windows Phone, 6 month young operating system to compete for market share today is unrealistic.

Windows for slate or tablet looks very much like Windows Phone

Article in the engadget show the UI of the upcoming Windows for tablet computers and looks like the experience will be similar to the Windows Phone 7.
Here is Microsofot Official post: http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/features/2011/jun11/06-01corporatenews.aspx with video