Is Windows Phone really going to outsell iPhone in China?

With huge fanfare, coverage in media and blogs Microsoft has officially launched Windows Phone in People’s Republic of China market. Windows Phone ‘Mango’ update was localized in Chinese language and earlier in 2012 Microsoft has launched Windows Phone Marketplace in Chinese. Windows Phone even comes with localized features. Windows Phone People hub instead of Facebook and Twitter integration (blocked in China social networks) connects users to Sina Weibo (Twitter knockoff) and Renren (Facebook adaptation). But it was moot point having no Windows Phone devices on the Chinese market until this week. Today list of OEMs is impressive: HTC, ZTE and Samsung. Arguable the most important of all, Nokia also will be selling Lumia end of March.

Windows Phones are priced rather aggressively around 1000 yuan, which about $150. iPhones are sold at prices at least 5 times higher. Price should definitely help gaining market share. In fact, Bloomberg article reports that Simon Leung, Microsoft China boss, expects Windows Phone to eclipse iPhone and Android in market share, but did not give specific timeline.

Is it reasonable to expect Windows Phone sales to be higher than iPhone after all you read is how people mug each other in front of Apple stores to buy an iPhone in China and how scalpers are making quick bucks brining devices from other countries?

Nicole Peng from Canalys expects Windows Phone to have 6% market share year 2012, and about 12% in 2013. According to Strategy Analytics today Android enjoys 65% market share in China and iPhone is at 13%. Symbian market share was around 18% in 2011 expected to shrink to 12% in 2012. In China today Apple is third in market share behind Symbian. Windows Phone should be taking share from Symbian, considering Nokia is sunsetting Symbian and investing heavily in Windows Phone. Also, I expect Windows Phone to start taking share from Android. Strategy Analytics expects Android to lose 2% share and iPhone to gain 1% each of the next 5 years. However next 5 years Strategy Analytics does not expect Windows Phone to catch iPhone’s market share.

I think it is reasonable to expect Windows Phone to retake most of today’s 18% Symbian market share next two years and take 2% from Android each year as well. In such case Windows Phone market share can be between 14%-18%, which is well in the striking distance of eclipsing iPhone.